# What numbers model humanity's survival this century?

### What numbers model humanity's survival this century?

Hmm. If humanity can prevent 2°C temperature rise this century and the elimination of its +16,000 nuclear warheads asap, humanity will improve it's 5% chance of surviving 21th century...

See attached file for more details.
Attachments
2016-KS-Julian Cribb.pdf
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### Re: What numbers model humanity's survival this century?

"Why it’s time to think about human extinction?" --Dr David Suzuki',

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### Re: What numbers model humanity's survival this century?

Series Expansion of $$(log X)^{2}$$:

For |-1 + X| > 1, we have

$$(log X)^{2} = (log (-1 + X))^{2} -2(log (-1 + X))^{2} \sum_{k=1}^{\infty}\frac{(-1)^{k}}{k(-1+X)^{k}}$$
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### Re: What numbers model humanity's survival this century?

Guest wrote:Hmm. If humanity can prevent 2°C temperature rise this century and eliminate its +16,000 nuclear warheads asap, humanity will improve its 5% chance of surviving 21th century...

See attached file for more details.

There some scientists who claim humans have a zero chance of surviving this century... Who knows?
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### Re: What numbers model humanity's survival this century?

FYI: 'Challenges of Climate Policy · Climate Action Symposia Series',

https://climate.mit.edu/symposia/live?mc_cid=2114f45e17&mc_eid=5573d45bec.
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### Re: What numbers model humanity's survival this century?

Guest wrote:FYI: 'Challenges of Climate Policy · Climate Action Symposia Series',

https://climate.mit.edu/symposia/live?mc_cid=2114f45e17&mc_eid=5573d45bec.

FYI: 'Living Planet: Adaptation & Change --
How do we inspire the fundamental changes that are needed to safeguard our planet? On this program, we look at some novel ideas, from restoring peatlands to their natural state to climate change resistant apples.',

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### Re: What numbers model humanity's survival this century?

Guest wrote:Hmm. If humanity can prevent 2°C temperature rise this century and the elimination of its +16,000 nuclear warheads asap, humanity will improve it's 5% chance of surviving 21th century...

FYI: '2°C: BEYOND THE LIMIT:
Extreme climate change has arrived in America',

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-america/.
Guest

### Re: What numbers model humanity's survival this century?

Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:Hmm. If humanity can prevent 2°C temperature rise this century and the elimination of its +16,000 nuclear warheads asap, humanity will improve it's 5% chance of surviving 21th century...

FYI: '2°C: BEYOND THE LIMIT:
Extreme climate change has arrived in America',

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-america/.

FYI: 'Rising seas are a much bigger danger than experts thought',

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/rising-seas-are-a-much-bigger-danger-than-experts-thought/2019/10/31/e9d85976-fb3b-11e9-8190-6be4deb56e01_story.html.
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### Re: What numbers model humanity's survival this century?

FYI: 'Sea levels to continue rising after Paris agreement emission pledges expire in 2030.',

https://phys.org/news/2019-11-sea-paris-agreement-emission-pledges.html.
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### Re: What numbers model humanity's survival this century?

FYI: 'IPCC report warns of a bleak future for oceans and frozen regions under climate change.
The ocean, while suffering from climate change, may also offer solutions to it',

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/ipcc-report-climate-change-bleak-future-oceans-cryosphere-solutions.
Attachments
Ice Cliff.jpg (85.5 KiB) Viewed 1250 times
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### Re: What numbers model humanity's survival this century?

FYI: 'Climate crisis: 11,000 scientists warn of "untold suffering".
Statement sets out ‘vital signs’ as indicators of magnitude of the climate emergency.'

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/05/climate-crisis-11000-scientists-warn-of-untold-suffering.
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wildfire.jpg (50.4 KiB) Viewed 1242 times
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### Re: What numbers model humanity's survival this century?

FYI: 'Only 2 countries are meeting their climate pledges. Here’s how the 10 worst could improve."

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/only-2-countries-are-meeting-their-climate-pledges-heres-how-the-10-worst-could-improve.
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Change.jpg (56.77 KiB) Viewed 1238 times
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### Re: What numbers model humanity's survival this century?

FYI: 'The Amazon rainforest is drying out and could be vulnerable to cataclysmic wildfires, Nasa reveals.'

https://metro.co.uk/2019/11/06/amazon-rainforest-drying-vulnerable-cataclysmic-wildfires-nasa-reveals-11051252/.
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Rainforest.png (130.16 KiB) Viewed 1219 times
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### Re: What numbers model humanity's survival this century?

FYI: 'Study Shows Climate Change Is Fueling Conflict and Mass Migration.'
“The effects of climate change go way beyond pure meteorological changes and have consequences for social and political processes worldwide.”

https://nexusmedianews.com/study-shows-climate-change-is-fueling-conflict-and-mass-migration-5f37de166ec6
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Social Effects of Climate Change.png (214.98 KiB) Viewed 1209 times
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### Re: What numbers model humanity's survival this century?

FYI: ‘Insect apocalypse’ poses risk to all life on Earth, conservationists warn.
Report claims 400,000 insect species face extinction amid heavy use of pesticides.'

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/13/insect-apocalypse-poses-risk-to-all-life-on-earth-conservationists-warn.
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Vanishing Bees.jpg (50.16 KiB) Viewed 1129 times
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### Re: What numbers model humanity's survival this century?

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Nuke Test.jpg (23.27 KiB) Viewed 1129 times
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### Re: What numbers model humanity's survival this century?

Guest wrote:FYI: 'Earth's sixth mass extinction event under way, scientists warn.'

...

FYI: 'How an India-Pakistan nuclear war could start—and have global consequences.',

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1680049.

Note: MAD means Mutual Assured Destruction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction.
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India-Pakistan MAD.jpeg (124.75 KiB) Viewed 1065 times
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### Re: What numbers model humanity's survival this century?

Humanity's efforts to survive forever is extremely futile...

Its end is fast approaching.
Attachments
End of Humanity.jpg (44.48 KiB) Viewed 937 times
Guest

### Re: What numbers model humanity's survival this century?

Guest wrote:Humanity's efforts to survive forever are extremely futile...

Its end is fast approaching.
Guest

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