Probability

Probability theory and statistics

Probability

Postby Guest » Fri Sep 24, 2021 4:21 pm

4 / 2,598,960 = 0.00000153908

Approximate fraction:

2 / 1,000,000

2 chances in 1 million for a royal flush.

2,598,960 possible poker hands.

How is the approx. fraction calculated ?
Guest
 

Re: Probability

Postby Guest » Sat Oct 02, 2021 1:00 pm

Please reply, Thanks.
Guest
 

Re: Probability

Postby Guest » Thu Oct 21, 2021 3:08 pm

Could you not calculate that 2/1,000,000= 0.000002?
1,000,000 has 6 zeros and 0.000002 has 6 places after the decimal.
Equivalently, 2/10^6= 2x 10^(-6).

And since 1.53 is slightly close to 2 than to 1, rounding 0.00000153908 rounds to 0.000002.
Guest
 

Re: Probability

Postby Guest » Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:45 am

" Could you not calculate that 2/1,000,000= 0.000002? " I can.

Ok, Thanks.
Guest
 

Re: Probability

Postby Guest » Sun Nov 07, 2021 10:01 pm

I don't consider that a very good approximation!

You state that there are 2,598,960 possible poker hands. I will accept that. It would be very tedious to calculate it! And there are 4 "royal flushes"- that's easy, they are "A, K, Q, J, 10 of spades", "A, K, Q, J, 10 of hearts", "A, K, Q, J, 10 of diamonds", and "A, K, Q, J, 10 of clubs". So the probability of any given poker hand be a royal flush is 4/2598960= 1/649840= 0.00000153908 approximately. We can write that as 1.53908/1000000 (we moved the decimal point 6 places to the right which is equivalent to multiplying by 10 six so we have to divide by 10 times to correct that).

But rather rounding up to 0.000002 is would round instead to 0.0000015. Since 1.5= 3/2 that converts to 1.5/100000= 3/2000000. Rather than "2 chances in a million" that gives the much more accurate "3 chances in 2 million".
Guest
 

Re: Probability

Postby Guest » Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:11 pm

1/649840

A question:

How is this obtained ?
Guest
 


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