Reworked Drake equation

[manases]

Hi guys!

The story is quite long but for the beginning, I will try a very short version and then I will answer all questions (please do ask).

You could be aware of the latest Drake equation update for 2020 that suggests 36 possible alien species in our galaxy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcbQ3Gs ... e=emb_logo

The Drake equation estimates the number of possible alien civilizations which
- are alive now
- originated in our galaxy (only)
- which are almost similar to us technologically (not more advanced, not more primitive)
- all previously existing advanced aliens died (!)

I am however interested in something else.
I am interested in estimations that can cover the entire Universe (number of planets) and also the entire existence of the Universe (time), so time will have a role
I am interested in the number of intelligent alien civilisations that have ever existed and reached our level of technology.

The variables are different from the Drake Equation as follows:

- PN (planet number of Earth-like planets in the Universe - we can estimate this - Drake equation only looks at our galaxy)
- PLC - primordial life chances - 9:1
- ILchanches (intelligent life chances from PLC - 3:2)
Those numbers came from this very recent study https://news.columbia.edu/life-intellig ... statistics which give us estimates for PLC and ILChanches
- ILCicle (intelligent life cycle - 5 billion years)
- RT (reset times - we need a scientific research for this number. For the moment we can use a... 1 planet gets its conditions changed (enough to restart the ILCicle from 0)... 5 times? Each planet has a RT of 5? We will have a form to adjust all those variables so dw.

My request for the great mathematicians on this forum:
I don't know how to put the variables in equation.
Please help!

This should produce TN = total number of intelligent alien civilizations that appeared in our Universe from the Big Bang!
So not the number aliens which exist today, not the number that survived the Fermis paradox at some point, not the number that visited us!
It is the number of intelligent aliens that reached our preset technological stage.
Maybe they all died after that or all survived, that is the next step to look at.

The variables are still not completely set. For example, we still need to decide if the RT is already accounted for in ILChanches and some other stuff.
It is all open to criticism obviously and we will also have fields to adjust the variables.

The current Drake Equation has limitations to answer if we are not alone - it looks only at our galaxy and also they assume all aliens die at some point which is a very strong position on a debatable subject.

Thanks in advance!

[Guest]

FYI: "Dr. Seager developed a parallel version of the Drake equation to estimate the number of habitable planets in the galaxy[tex].^{[30]}[/tex] Instead of aliens with radio technology, Seager has revised the Drake equation to focus on simply the presence of any alien life detectable from Earth. The equation focuses on the search for planets with biosignature gases, gases produced by life that can accumulate in a planet atmosphere to levels that can be detected with remote space telescopes[tex]^{[30]}[/tex].

[tex]N = N^{*} * F_{Q} * F_{HZ} * F_{o} * F_{L} * F_{S}[/tex].

N* = the number of stars observed

[tex]F_{Q}[/tex] = the fraction of stars that are quiet;

[tex]F_{HZ}[/tex] = the fraction of stars with rocky planets in the habitable zone;

[tex]F_{o}[/tex] = the fraction of those planets that can be observed;

[tex]F_{L}[/tex] = the fraction that have life;

[tex]F_{S}[/tex] = the fraction of which life produces a detectable signature gas."

Source Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sara_Seager#Seager_equation.

Relevant Reference Link:

'The Drake Equation Is Broken; Here's How To Fix It.',

https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2018/04/05/the-drake-equation-is-broken-heres-how-to-fix-it/#4f42ffd113ca.

[manases]

Thanks, Guest,

I am trying an easier approach - just porting the existing studies (from our galaxy) to the entire Universe.

So if this study (https://news.columbia.edu/life-intellig ... statistics) finds that chances for primordial life are 9:1 and for intelligent life are 3:2, and if we have X planets in Universe,
Then I transform 9:1 in 0.9 and 3:2 in 0.6 and then results that the N (aliens)
N = X * 0.9 * 0.6

Is this correct, please?

[Guest]

There's an abundance of energy and matter... And over time and over space, lifeforms have evolved throughout the universe including our galaxy.

So there's a 100% chance that advanced alien civilizations exist throughout the universe.