Probability of scoring over a certain score given a history

[Guest]

Hi guys, for some context I am an avid fantasy football player and I play on a website where players can win you prizes when they score over a certain certain number of points through their actions in a game. I do have a maths degree but it has been a while and I am struggling with what I believe should be quite a simple process.



I have a data set of all the past scores for a variety of the players in my team so I can work out their mean score and the standard deviation of their scores and I want to know what percentage of the time they will beat their target score (this changes based on a players position).



For example one player I have has a mean score of 180 a standard deviation of 34.2 his target score is 216. How often will he manage to beat that score?



Cheers!