Best betting structure in a 50/50 system

Probability theory and statistics

Best betting structure in a 50/50 system

Postby Guest » Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:27 am

Hello,

I am looking for a betting strategy that would be consistently profitable in a system with a 50 % probability to win. Basically the holy grail.

I assume such a betting system is impossible because even if the game goes on indefinitely, the bankroll will eventually reach zero.

Most betting strategies I know are different variations of essentially doubling your bet until you win, which will produce a major drawdown which will eventually swallow the whole bankroll.

I have tested different tricks and tweaks in Excel using RANDBETWEEN(0;1) in systems that goes on for 50 000 bets.

But big surprise,
on average all systems have an expectancy that is negative or break even. I can stretch out the life of any system by cutting down on risk and bet size, "reset" bets on losing streaks and so on. But nothing seem to produce a consistent positive result. On some runs I get great results, but on the next refresh, not so much. So I also want to reduce variation as much as possible.

The most interesting finding is that the longest losing streak have been 18.

So there are many ways to structure bets in a 50/50 system. And most, if not all of these strategies are crap. But what is the best way to do this?
Guest
 

Re: Best betting structure in a 50/50 system

Postby Guest » Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:55 pm

The best way to reduce your losses to the minimum is to bet as little as possible on bets that give you the best possible odds. Taking that to its extreme, you can guarentee no loss by NOT betting!

The only way to guarentee a long term win is to cheat!

(Since "black jack" uses a "boot" of cards with just a few of the cards used in one round, it was, once, possible to get a small edge by "counting" the cards (or at least face cards) that have already been played. However, most casinos have ways now of using large boots with multiple packs or methods of replaying cards. Smaller casinos have ways of indentifying "card counters" and then kick them out of the casino.)
Guest
 

Re: Best betting structure in a 50/50 system

Postby Guest » Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:43 am

Well... Really Interesting!
Guest
 

Re: Best betting structure in a 50/50 system

Postby Guest » Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:21 pm

Not bad.
Guest
 


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