On the Relevant Probabilities of Life

Probability theory and statistics

On the Relevant Probabilities of Life

Postby Guest » Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:25 am

FYI: 'What Are the Odds of Dying From...',

https://www.nsc.org/work-safety/tools-resources/injury-facts/chart.

May we live long and be happy/peaceful. And please pray or meditate every day.
Guest
 

Re: On the Relevant Probabilities of Life

Postby Guest » Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:54 am

FYI: 'The Big One: Fear of catastrophic quake grows in California as dormant fault line moves for 1st time in 500 years',

https://www.rt.com/usa/471399-big-one-quake-california/.

In the above article, Dr. Lucy Jones states the probability of a very big earthquake ('the Big One') striking California is 1/20000 (.00005) per day.

In a year that probability becomes [tex]1 - (1 - .00005)^{365} = 1 - .99995^{365} \approx .018[/tex] or 1.8% ;

In five years ... [tex]1 - .99995^{5 *365} \approx .087[/tex] or 8.7% ;

In ten years ... [tex]1 - .99995^{10 *365} \approx .167[/tex] or 16.7% ;

In twenty years ... [tex]1 - .99995^{20 *365} \approx .306[/tex] or 30.6% ;

In hundred years ... [tex]1 - .99995^{100*365} \approx .839[/tex] or 83.9% ;

In 150 years ... [tex]1 - .99995^{150*365} \approx .935[/tex] or 93.5% ;

...

Let's pray it never happens.
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