FYI: 'The Big One: Fear of catastrophic quake grows in California as dormant fault line moves for 1st time in 500 years',
https://www.rt.com/usa/471399-big-one-quake-california/.
In the above article, Dr. Lucy Jones states the probability of a very big earthquake ('the Big One') striking California is 1/20000 (.00005) per day.
In a year that probability becomes [tex]1 - (1 - .00005)^{365} = 1 - .99995^{365} \approx .018[/tex] or 1.8% ;
In five years ... [tex]1 - .99995^{5 *365} \approx .087[/tex] or 8.7% ;
In ten years ... [tex]1 - .99995^{10 *365} \approx .167[/tex] or 16.7% ;
In twenty years ... [tex]1 - .99995^{20 *365} \approx .306[/tex] or 30.6% ;
In hundred years ... [tex]1 - .99995^{100*365} \approx .839[/tex] or 83.9% ;
In 150 years ... [tex]1 - .99995^{150*365} \approx .935[/tex] or 93.5% ;
...
Let's pray it never happens.